DEMIL LIABILITY

[Lenny Siegel <lsiegel@cpeo.org>]

CONVENTIONAL AMMUNITION DISPOSAL

The Department of Defense's massive stockpile of conventional munitions
is a fiscal and environmental time bomb that has somehow escaped public
attention. The General Accounting Office (GAO) recently studied the
Pentagon's liability for munitions disposal, and it came up with the
following information.

The Defense Department ammunition inventory balance (as of September 30,
1996) exceeds 5 million tons!

Army 2,159,667
Air Force 2,102,988
Navy 644,424
Marine Corps 107,797

TOTAL 5,014,876

GAO argues that the total inventory is the "basis for estimating the
disposal liability because ammunition used in training and operations is
generally replaced to maintain the inventory at certain levels."
Therefore it calculates, using the rule-of-thumb average disposal cost
of $1,000 per ton, that the U.S. military conventional ammunition
disposal liability exceeds $5 billion!

I think that's misleading. Any concentrated effort to accelerate
disposal of weapons stocks would be matched by a decline in procurement
and manufacturing. I think it's much more useful to look at the shorter
term liability. As of September 30, 1996, the "liability associated with
ammunition awaiting disposal" equalled $393 million.

The liabilty associated with munitions expected to be transferred for
disposal in the subsequent five fiscal years was:

FY 1997 $107 million
FY 1998 93 million
FY 1999 85 million
FY 2000 74 million
FY 2001 72 million

Thus, according to GAO, the liability for anticipated near-term
munitions disposal totals $824 million. These figures seem more
realistic, but I expect changes in force structure and base structure,
as well as increased cost driven by environmental concerns, to bring
annual increases, rather than decreases, in upcoming years.

All these number apply to weapons that are obsolete or old enough to be
considered too unreliable for use in training or on the battlefield.
They do not describe unexploded ordnance found in impact ranges or in
waste burial sites. Rather, these are stockpiled munitions that may be
safely handled and disposed of in bulk quantities.

See "Financial Management: DOD's Liability for the Disposal of
Conventional Ammuntion Can Be Estimated," General Accounting Office,
AIMD-98-32, December, 1987. Individual copies of GAO reports may be
ordered, at no cost, by calling 202/512-6000. GAO's Web address is
http://www.gao.gov.

Lenny Siegel
Director, Center for Public Environmental Oversight (AKA SFSU
CAREER/PRO)
c/o PSC, 222B View St., Mountain View, CA 94041
Voice: 650/961-8918 or 650/969-1545
Fax: 650/968-1126
lsiegel@cpeo.org