RE: [CPEO-MEF] Cancer clusters and correlations

[Susan Gawarecki <loc@icx.net>]

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I must take issue with what Richard Hughes wrote:

> Cancer elevations plus low birth weights adjacent to a Superfund site with
> known emissions are the next thing to cause and effect.

Correlation does not imply causality.  There are many many demographic
and behavioral factors that must be accounted for.

You can look at nationwide and worldwide statistics at the National
Cancer Institute's Cancer Rates and Risks (1996):
http://rex.nci.nih.gov/NCI_Pub_Interface/raterisk/index.html.
There are geographic variations in incidence rates of various cancers
by factors of hundreds, and 10-fold variations are common.  Cancers are
multi-factorial diseases and typically have years to decades between a
given cellular insult (and typically more than one is required) and
incidence of the disease--rarely can you point to anything as a specific
cause.

Moreover, in its investigations of thousands of residential cancer
clusters, the Agency for Toxic Substance and Disease Registry has not
found anything that can be considered a cause (see Gawande, A., The
Cancer-Cluster Myth.  The New Yorker LXXIV(45):34-37; 1999). 
Distribution of cancer incidences, like anything else of a predominantly
random nature, is subject to a statistical distribution that, by chance,
leaves clumps.  On the other hand, clusters of work-related ailments can
generally be traced and documented because exposures are generally
long-term and high-level--unlike residential exposures.

This does not diminish the tragedy of any individual's illness, but
fingerpointing at a facility when you don't have a well-designed
epidemiological study in your pocket is worthless.

Susan Gawarecki
--
These statements reflect my personal opinion, not necessarily that of my
employers.
==================================================
Susan L. Gawarecki, Ph.D., Executive Director
Oak Ridge Reservation Local Oversight Committee, Inc.
136 S Illinois Ave, Ste 208, Oak Ridge, TN 37830
Please note new area code:
Phone (865) 483-1333; Fax (865) 482-6572; E-mail loc@icx.net
OCTOBER INSIGHTS CAN BE FOUND AT: http://www.local-oversight.org
==================================================


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